锟皆癸拷锟竭碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷冒锟斤拷

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November 11, 2008

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟藉单

锟斤拷前说锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵凤拷锟截的搭档Charlie Munger锟角革拷锟斤拷为NB锟斤拷思锟斤拷锟竭★拷锟斤拷锟阶帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较达拷拼锟斤拷GoodFella锟节回癸拷锟节间，锟斤拷锟斤拷瞬锟斤拷倩锟斤拷锟斤拷女锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷Charlie Munger锟斤拷思锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?0锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷猓?/p>

锟斤拷锟剿诧拷锟斤拷时锟戒，锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟揭★拷锟斤拷志锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭革拷锟剿撅拷锟矫ｏ拷锟角革拷值锟矫筹拷锟节凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷志锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷篇锟街憋拷锟斤拷氐模锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷腋锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟藉单

锟斤拷锟斤拷准锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节达拷锟侥匡拷辏拷锟斤拷锟窖★拷瘛⒔锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解、锟叫憋拷锟斤拷伪锟斤拷

Use notions

要锟斤拷锟斤拷确锟斤拷锟侥革拷锟斤拷锟侥筹拷锟斤拷敕?/p>

* 使锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷实锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫的达拷锟诫法
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟矫癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷学锟斤拷筛选
* 知锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷傻锟侥匡拷锟?br /> * 寻锟揭诧拷锟揭匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟剿斤拷锟斤拷趾锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷寻锟斤拷锟街革拷锟捷ｏ拷锟斤拷锟节此伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟杰癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷思锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷住锟斤拷要锟叫达拷某锟叫э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截碉拷锟杰猴拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷嘶锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷

What is the issue?

锟斤拷锟斤拷慕锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷暮锟斤拷幕锟斤拷氐锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铮匡拷锟接︼拷锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?br /> * 什么锟斤拷锟斤拷氐模锟绞裁达拷强山锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟侥ｏ拷什么锟角匡拷知锟侥ｏ拷什么锟角匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷应锟侥ｏ拷Utility-applicability锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟剿斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺诧拷锟轿拷锟绞癸拷约锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷敕拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭恍╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷和伙拷锟斤拷知识锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭就得筹拷锟较★拷锟揭诧拷知锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟揭碉拷锟叫断憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿猴拷锟斤拷
* 锟揭憋拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟皆わ拷猓匡拷锟斤拷强锟皆わ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷也锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷岱拷锟绞裁达拷锟轿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭★拷应锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟揭对达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷硕锟斤拷锟绞憋拷洌匡拷丝锟斤拷锟剿硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解，锟饺斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷思锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥达拷锟斤拷锟解，然锟斤拷锟斤拷约锟斤拷木锟斤拷乜锟绞妓硷拷锟斤拷锟?/p>

Understand what it means

锟斤拷獗筹拷锟侥猴拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆和革拷锟斤拷锟诫法锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷椎姆锟绞斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫碉拷锟斤拷锟皆和斤拷锟桔碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷桶锟绞撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿讹拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷叶锟轿达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟皆わ拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟剿斤拷锟斤拷锟介发锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷转锟侥凤拷式锟斤拷原锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节诧拷锟斤拷什么影锟届？为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟届？锟斤拷锟节碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟轿会发锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟桔察、锟斤拷锟街★拷锟铰硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介）锟斤拷

Filters and Rules

锟斤拷锟剿和癸拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟矫癸拷锟斤拷锟饺笔★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴秆★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铱锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿硷拷猓?br /> * 锟侥憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡猴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蕖锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭的硷拷值锟桔猴拷偏锟矫ｏ拷锟缴达拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷鼗锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷约锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟杰碉拷锟斤拷锟介。

What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve and avoid and when and why?

锟揭撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴和憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟绞裁词憋拷锟斤拷桑锟皆拷锟轿拷危锟?/p>

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街讹拷锟皆ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟侥硷拷值锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷目锟斤拷效锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟借定锟斤拷时锟戒范围锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖撅拷锟斤到锟斤拷目锟疥，锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟轿凤拷映锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街猴拷效锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤到什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷莸锟斤拷锟斤拷冢锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟叫ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟叫办法锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴程度ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟阶硷拷墓丶锟街革拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锏斤拷锟侥匡拷辏拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷幕锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷玫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟揭可凤拷汛锟斤拷目锟斤拷殖锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟睫的讹拷锟斤拷目锟疥？
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷原锟斤拷锟斤拷冢锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷也锟斤拷貌锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷诓锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟绞憋拷锟斤拷腔锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷实锟截ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰碉拷锟斤拷某些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟届？
* 锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟教地诧拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷目锟疥，锟斤拷使锟剿革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭达到锟斤拷目锟斤拷姆锟绞斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟角诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤到锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟?/p>

What is the cause of that?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷冢锟?/p>

* 为锟剿达到目锟疥，锟揭憋拷锟斤拷知锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭达拷锟侥匡拷锟侥革拷锟街筹拷锟斤拷
* 通锟斤拷锟斤拷些要锟截碉拷锟斤拷峡锟斤拷源锟缴碉拷目锟疥？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷斯锟绞斤拷锟?br /> * 什么锟斤拷锟揭诧拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷玫慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰达拷使锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟疥”锟斤拷锟街碉拷原锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷喂锟杰ｏ拷锟揭憋拷锟诫不锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷系统要锟斤拷转锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟届？锟斤拷些锟截硷拷锟皆憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷未知锟斤拷锟截猴拷锟节ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些确锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截匡拷锟皆帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟脚伙拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷
* 什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰达拷使某一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街ｏ拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟节何达拷锟斤拷锟角讹拷锟节伙拷锟角筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷稀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷尾锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节癸拷同锟侥凤拷锟斤拷缺锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷俚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟节何达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷预锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟竭ｏ拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷郑锟斤拷锟劫凤拷什么锟斤拷锟侥猴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟皆的ｏ拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫的ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷浠拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷岱拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷浠拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟戒化时锟斤拷系统锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟戒化锟侥癸拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷强锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟戒化锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰斤拷锟斤拷锟襟，匡拷锟杰碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些希锟斤拷锟侥和诧拷希锟斤拷锟侥讹拷锟节和筹拷锟节斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷只锟叫э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷模锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角匡拷取锟斤拷芏取锟斤拷锟斤拷取锟绞憋拷锟轿拷取锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷叩龋锟揭伙拷锟斤拷小锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷诜锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷茫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷某一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰硷拷锟皆改变？锟斤拷要什么锟斤拷锟杰达到锟劫斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艽锏斤拷俳锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷腋谋锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷岬硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷榉拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥变？锟斤拷锟斤拷谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷注锟斤拷锟揭革拷锟斤拷趣锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系统锟斤拷效锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷吮浠拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷戏锟斤拷锟皆的改憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷也锟斤拷锟斤拷之锟侥变？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟侥癸拷系锟斤拷锟斤拷锟戒化锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟劫凤拷锟侥憋拷锟斤拷歉锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷习锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷呋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷盏锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铮匡拷锟酵ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铮匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷时锟酵诧拷锟杰等碉拷效锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷顺锟斤拷锟斤拷锟劫ｏ拷效锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷转锟斤拷锟劫斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铮匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷式锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟侥变，锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟侥变？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁词憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷谋锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艽锟斤拷目锟疥？锟斤拷锟斤拷味锟斤拷锟斤拷浠拷某潭龋锟紻egree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟铰凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么影锟届？锟斤拷锟侥骋伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷植锟斤拷洌拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥骋伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷兀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫в︼拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷只锟侥憋拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截ｏ拷锟解部锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷谋锟斤拷业拇锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟脚伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷坪锟斤拷锟斤拷疲锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷艿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷战锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟戒化锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷腋谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷一锟斤拷式锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解，为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰达拷锟侥匡拷辏縃as my goal different cause short-term and long-term锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵拷锟斤拷鄄锟叫э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芊锟阶凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫凤拷锟斤拷貌锟酵拷慕嵌群锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭达拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

锟斤拷没锟斤拷锟街成碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷园锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷目锟疥？

* 通锟斤拷目锟疥、锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解、锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷式锟侥伙拷锟斤拷杀锟斤拷锟绞憋拷洹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸和撅拷锟斤拷压锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸稀锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷模式锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锌锟斤拷馨锟斤拷掖锟斤拷目锟疥？
* 锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷某些锟截讹拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰硷拷锟斤拷
* 每一锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟杰诧拷锟斤拷锟侥猴拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟绞裁葱э拷茫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟竭ｏ拷锟斤拷锟矫匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节达拷值锟叫讹拷撸锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷诓锟饺∧承╋拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿达拷锟斤拷锟揭恍╋拷锟斤拷幔?/p>

What are the consequences?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

* 通锟斤拷锟皆斤拷锟斤拷锟皆わ拷锟斤拷锟窖帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰帮拷锟斤拷锟揭达拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟窖★拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷植锟斤拷岱拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 每锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷呒锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭诧拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷圆锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷之锟斤拷拇锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节伙拷锟竭筹拷锟斤拷锟节诧拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟酵拷锟斤拷锟斤拷魏徒锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷诨锟斤拷锟节碉拷效应锟斤拷
* 什么锟斤拷锟皆帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷预锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷伪锟斤拷
* 为锟剿达到目锟疥，什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷敕拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷录锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷约锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系目锟斤拷锟斤拷苑直锟斤拷卸锟竭ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 什么锟斤拷确锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截会极锟斤拷影锟届到锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷馗锟斤拷锟斤拷值锟叫в︼拷锟斤拷吒锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷鼗锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷确锟斤拷选锟斤拷直锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟角凤拷硬锟酵拷慕嵌锟饺拷婵硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷枪锟斤拷锟斤拷锟结、锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较的斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷丝锟斤拷芑锟斤拷锟矫达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业木锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷前锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷么应锟皆ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟?/p>

Bias

偏锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷趣锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷原锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷幕岬硷拷锟斤拷也锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷械锟狡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷泻锟皆拷锟斤拷锟皆斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟桔伙拷锟斤拷选锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞碉拷校锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷偏锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷实锟叫断和硷拷值锟叫断分憋拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷 锟斤拷 锟斤拷锟叫讹拷煽锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷愎伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿硷拷锟斤拷证锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫断碉拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷没锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖的讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?/p>

The hypothesis
锟斤拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷傻锟侥匡拷辏拷锟斤拷么思锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷夜锟斤拷诮锟斤拷锟斤拷预锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷每锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷剩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艽锟斤拷锟揭碉拷目锟斤拷锟金？讹拷每锟斤拷锟桔点都要锟绞ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷敕拷嵌缘锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷渭锟斤拷锟侥筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿憋拷锟斤拷锟街な抵帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芊锟斤拷锟街の憋拷锟?br /> * 要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要知锟斤拷些什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺ｏ拷锟揭憋拷锟斤拷知锟斤拷什么锟斤拷式锟杰癸拷锟斤拷锟揭的憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷然锟斤拷锟揭诧拷锟斤拷知锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷未锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷摹锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷要知锟斤拷锟杰癸拷支锟脚猴拷锟狡凤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷证锟捷★拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷证锟侥ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷虻サ募锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

Look for evidence and judge the evidence
寻锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟劫凤拷目锟疥、锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷值目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟竭ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷伪锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷去寻锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟藉、锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟津、猴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺凤拷模锟斤拷锟矫达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷味锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷岵伙拷岢拷锟斤拷呒锟斤拷锟斤拷卟锟斤拷锟剿硷拷椋匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷魏慰锟皆わ拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟街э拷锟侥骋伙拷卸系拇锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷荩锟斤拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接癸拷锟斤拷傻模锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芊锟皆斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷屑锟斤拷椋匡拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷荻锟斤拷腔锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟剿革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截ｏ拷锟斤拷锟较匡拷锟斤拷锟捷碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟捷碉拷权锟斤拷锟角讹拷锟劫ｏ拷What is the quality of the evidence锟斤拷锟斤拷锟脚讹拷锟叫讹拷撸锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解部锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷太锟劫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟桔革拷锟斤拷锟叫碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫伙拷锟轿ワ拷锟斤拷锟窖э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷然锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆碉拷锟斤拷息锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷怨鄄锟斤拷锟斤拷址锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芄锟酵拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟街な碉拷业牟虏锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟节斤拷锟结发锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫伙拷锟角诧拷锟斤拷锟叫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷没锟斤拷锟斤拷氐墓锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷浴锟狡斤拷锟斤拷省锟斤拷锟斤拷锟教度★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷郑锟斤拷约锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截碉拷锟斤拷锟截ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷录锟斤拷未锟斤拷锟结发锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介并锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫达拷锟斤拷锟皆ｏ拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷未锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟斤拷什么锟角猴拷锟节的ｏ拷什么锟斤拷锟角ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟杰筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷茫锟斤拷锟斤拷诘锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰达拷锟斤拷锟侥变、锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷璋拷锟轿裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟竭ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟斤拷锟斤拷芄锟斤拷品锟斤拷锟街帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟揭憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞ｏ拷为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷荩锟斤拷医锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷莸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷遥锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷耍锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

* 思锟斤拷锟结导锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫碉拷原锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷渭锟斤拷锟斤拷证锟斤拷锟揭的斤拷锟斤拷锟角达拷锟斤拷模锟斤拷铱锟斤拷芊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟街わ拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷菘锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫伙拷锟绞裁达拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业慕锟斤拷锟?锟桔点不锟斤拷锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟借？锟角伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷实锟斤拷锟斤拷穑考锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷呒锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业募锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷锟诫法锟酵硷拷锟斤拷锟角达拷锟斤拷模锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟叫凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟矫伙拷懈锟斤拷玫锟窖★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷某些锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟角碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷裕锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷遣锟饺凤拷锟斤拷模锟轿裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟街伙拷锟斤拷堑锟斤拷锟侥壳帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷疲锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷使锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷确锟侥讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟桔合匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷氐锟斤拷锟斤拷兀锟斤拷也锟斤拷锟斤拷撕锟斤拷实暮锟斤拷锟斤拷锟阶硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟侥匡拷锟斤拷腔锟斤拷锟侥筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟绞碉拷谴锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟筋，锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟斤拷谢锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆的伙拷锟斤拷系统锟皆的达拷锟斤拷锟金？讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫碉拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆拷锟斤拷锟皆斤拷锟酵ｏ拷锟斤拷锟叫凤拷锟角癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系统锟斤拷锟斤拷某些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节的匡拷锟杰伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷也锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷谋浠拷锟?br /> * 锟揭碉拷锟诫法锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟狡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷腔鄣木锟斤拷锟绞憋拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷幕岽达拷锟斤拷锟绞凤拷锟铰硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹窨吹锟斤拷锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟斤拷姆锟斤拷锟斤拷茫锟?br /> * 锟斤拷没锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要之锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟阶拷业募锟斤拷瑁拷锟斤拷玫锟斤拷锟斤拷炔锟斤拷锟斤拷呒锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷遣锟斤拷歉锟斤拷撸锟斤拷锟矫伙拷蟹锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷菘锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷谴锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷证锟斤拷锟斤拷锟睫凤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷辏╋拷锟绞碉拷椋拷锟斤拷呔锟斤拷椤拷鄄欤╋拷贸锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷校锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷谴锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟叫革拷锟斤拷支锟斤拷锟皆碉拷证锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蔚锟斤拷碌模锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷冢锟斤拷锟斤拷芊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟角诧拷锟斤拷锟杰筹拷锟街的ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖э拷姆锟绞阶既凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接帮拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷喾达拷姆锟斤拷锟斤拷遣锟斤拷歉锟斤拷锌锟斤拷埽锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角ｏ拷锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟节碉拷锟诫法锟斤拷锟角达拷锟斤拷摹锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷胤锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艿锟斤拷撕锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷姆锟斤拷锟秸癸拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷频锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷之锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷兀锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷榉拷锟斤拷锟结极锟斤拷谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟筋坏锟侥撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭凤拷锟斤拷锟剿ｏ拷锟揭革拷锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟今化ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷暮锟斤拷锟街伙拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷璋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫в︼拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟酵的ｏ拷
* 执锟斤拷锟叫伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟秸ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟筋不希锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街碉拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟筋不确锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷没锟叫匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭得碉拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞ツ筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷疲锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系统锟斤拷锟杰斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟届降锟斤拷锟斤拷停锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷旆拷穑糠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷氩伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷椋拷锟斤拷锟矫伙拷斜锟窖★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芗锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷瓒ㄊ裁达拷锟斤拷墓锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆帮拷锟斤拷锟揭达拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷懿锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷没锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节的帮拷全锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

What are the consequences if I am wrong?

锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

* 锟揭把讹拷注押锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟截硷拷要锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟矫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟侥讹拷锟斤拷去冒锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷取锟斤拷锟叫匡拷锟斤拷锟角讹拷锟斤拷效锟斤拷锟斤拷越系偷亩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫的达拷锟脚伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷龋锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷娲︼拷图锟街碉拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥成憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷钱锟斤拷时锟戒、锟斤拷锟斤拷压锟斤拷锟饺ｏ拷锟角讹拷锟劫ｏ拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟揭硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟绞碉拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷妫伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷妫拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷筒锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷妗ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷愿锟斤拷业锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥讹拷锟节和筹拷锟节的猴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟绞э拷突锟斤拷锟缴憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷院锟?锟斤拷原锟斤拷
* 锟揭诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟揭硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟绞碉拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷妫伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷挪锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷妫拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷头锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟斤拷妗ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷愿锟斤拷业锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥讹拷锟节和筹拷锟节的猴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟绞э拷突锟斤拷锟缴憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷院锟?锟斤拷原锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷锟轿拷锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷丝滩锟斤拷锟饺★拷魏锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷锟街わ拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷亩锟斤拷诤统锟斤拷诘暮锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷院锟?锟斤拷原锟斤拷

What is the value?

锟斤拷值锟斤拷什么锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷说锟斤拷每一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞碉拷锟叫э拷煤锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷母锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锏侥匡拷辏匡拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟侥憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷选锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷准锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接ｏ拷
* 通锟斤拷锟斤拷每锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷氐锟斤拷锟叫达拷郑锟斤拷锟斤拷羁达拷玫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟窖★拷锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟届？锟斤拷锟角凤拷愿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥筹拷锟斤拷囟锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷

What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?

锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥斤拷展锟斤拷

* 锟揭诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷莸谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟阶碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟狡斤拷锟侥程度ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些指锟斤拷晒锟斤拷叶锟斤拷眨锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系统锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节达拷锟侥匡拷锟侥凤拷式去锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭ｏ拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷欠锟斤拷锟借碍目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴ｏ拷

How act now?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟?/p>

* 锟揭匡拷锟斤拷执锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节憋拷锟诫开始锟斤拷取锟斤拷锟截讹拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷
* 谁锟斤拷什么锟斤拷什么时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷知锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆的点（时锟斤拷锟叫э拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷系锟酵癸拷锟斤拷为什么锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角猴拷锟绞的ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷也锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷颍ɑ锟斤拷卟锟斤拷谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷碌姆锟绞斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟揭憋拷锟斤拷锟饺★拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷实锟斤拷锟侥举措？要锟斤拷循锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷颍峄拷讯锟斤拷锟绞憋拷洌匡拷锟斤拷芊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铱锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷锟斤拷薅锟斤拷墓锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷胤锟斤拷锟绞э拷锟?/p>

Have I made an active decision?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟角凤拷准锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿改憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷碌锟斤拷锟较拷锟斤拷碌锟斤拷卸希锟?br /> * 锟斤拷某一锟截讹拷锟铰硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰的撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷痛锟斤拷冢锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷泄锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街э拷执司锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟节ｏ拷锟斤拷什么锟铰碉拷证锟斤拷证锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芸锟斤拷缘玫锟斤拷谋洌匡拷液锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸癸拷谋锟阶硷拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟街拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷椋匡拷锟叫╋拷录锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截的ｏ拷锟斤拷些锟角诧拷锟斤拷氐模锟斤拷业锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿凤拷锟斤拷锟侥变（锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷涑わ拷龋锟斤拷锟?/p>

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

锟斤拷锟斤拷思锟斤拷锟角憋拷学习锟竭成筹拷锟斤拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷没锟斤拷锟斤拷卸嗖伙拷茫锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷取什么锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷说锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟金？碉拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟角的ｏ拷锟斤拷锟皆猴拷锟斤拷实锟侥筹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤？
* 为什么锟揭会犯锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤犯锟斤拷锟剿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷杀锟斤拷卸锟斤拷
* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟阶达拷欠锟斤拷锟秸此硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟揭对达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷没锟叫诧拷取锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷尾锟斤拷懿锟斤拷锟斤拷荽锟斤拷锟斤拷腋锟斤拷锟饺次达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟接︼拷冒丫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷铮匡拷冶锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭猴拷学习锟侥地凤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷

What exactly is the problem?

锟斤拷锟斤拷谋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷模锟?/p>

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锏斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟轿裁达拷锟矫伙拷写锟斤拷目锟疥？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤发锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷什么时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷谁锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟剿ｏ拷
* 锟揭碉拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷味锟斤拷锟缴ｏ拷锟杰癸拷锟斤拷使锟揭达到目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷鼗锟斤拷艿锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷牛锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷潜昊癸拷潜锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷目锟疥构锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭帮拷目锟疥建锟斤拷锟斤拷什么原锟斤拷图锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些原锟斤拷图锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷魏锟斤拷锟斤拷疲锟斤拷锟矫碉拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰的斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟诫考锟斤拷锟斤拷慕锟斤拷

What is causing me to do this?

什么锟斤拷使锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷

目前锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷状态锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷痛锟洁，锟斤拷锟杰伙拷锟绞裁达拷么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷什么锟角斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芑锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷茫锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟揭ｏ拷锟斤拷些锟斤拷锟截会导锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

What is the context?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵诧拷锟斤拷锟竭ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷锟绞裁醋达拷锟斤拷锟剿拷蔷锟斤拷锟斤拷撸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷叩谋锟阶硷拷锟绞裁达拷锟剿拷锟斤拷妫拷虻ィ锟剿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟金？诧拷锟斤拷锟竭讹拷锟斤拷实锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁从帮拷欤?/p>

Can I judge him?

锟斤拷锟杰讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷确锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷锟侥斤拷色锟斤拷什么锟斤拷?锟斤拷锟侥撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟绞憋拷曰锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷缘锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷洹拷幕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介）锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解部锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷锟竭达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷图锟斤拷锟揭筹拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷

What is in his self-interest to do?

锟斤拷锟侥革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤？

什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷呒锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷痛锟洁，锟斤拷锟皆伙拷锟绞裁达拷娲︼拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟轿达拷啵匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟轿裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷玫锟揭恍┦裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞ナ裁达拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟皆达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷庭锟斤拷职锟轿★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷位锟斤拷锟斤拷权锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟结激锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟结（锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角讹拷锟斤拷锟侥惩凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷伪锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷辍憋拷暮锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷某锟铰碉拷锟斤拷锟脚ｏ拷锟斤拷锟竭诧拷锟斤拷锟脚ｏ拷锟角凤拷锟杰革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷/锟斤拷锟芥？

What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that influence him and can cause misjudgment?

什么锟斤拷锟斤拷取锟斤拷锟饺憋拷莼岬硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷校锟?/p>

什么偏锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫筹拷锟侥斤拷锟桔ｏ拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷原锟斤拷锟斤拷芑锟接帮拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷栈锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷母锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷妫渴裁达拷峒わ拷锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷卸锟斤拷锟?/p>

What are the consequences?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸的斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷艽锏斤拷业锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷亩锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟揭诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷遥锟斤拷锟斤拷墙锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截诧拷锟斤拷锟竭碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟铰ｏ拷锟斤拷锟侥达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较低筹拷锟斤拷虻ィ锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟街拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷说锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节伙拷锟节的斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷越锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟揭诧拷锟酵拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷椋拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷

What system would I like to have if the roles were reversed?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴拷锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较碉拷锟?/p>

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业慕锟缴拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷使锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介？锟斤拷锟斤拷通锟斤拷什么锟斤拷为取锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街达拷锟揭拷锟缴★拷锟斤拷目锟疥”锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟窖斤拷色转锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介发锟斤拷锟斤拷

Is this the right system?

系统锟斤拷确锟斤拷

锟揭匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷失去锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷钱锟斤拷锟斤拷位锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷庭锟侥恐惧？锟揭匡拷锟皆改憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷痛锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芄锟斤拷锟较碉拷锟斤拷锟绞鼓承┯帮拷锟斤拷锟叫★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蟹锟斤拷锟竭癸拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷丫锟斤拷锟缴碉拷锟斤拷锟介？锟斤拷锟节成癸拷锟斤拷傻锟斤拷锟斤拷椋拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷支锟街ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸憋拷锟斤拷募锟斤拷堋锟街讹拷锟斤拷锟截碉拷锟斤拷息锟斤拷锟斤拷知锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟界负锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟轿达到锟斤拷锟皆硷拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷途锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟侥斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟秸筹拷锟斤拷为锟叫癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷艿玫锟斤拷慕锟斤拷锟斤拷欠锟斤拷目锟斤拷一锟铰ｏ拷锟揭匡拷锟斤拷锟借定什么锟斤拷锟侥癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷应锟斤拷锟斤拷锟洁共锟叫的撅拷锟斤拷锟皆ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟洁反锟侥规定锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷些锟侥憋拷锟角憋拷锟诫发锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷谁锟皆此革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥憋拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷曰锟斤拷卸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥硷拷值锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷目锟疥？锟斤拷锟结将什么锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷希锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷慰锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷锟斤拷兀锟?br />

BUSINESS EVALUATION
业锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷1锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷锟斤拷稹锟斤拷锟皆わ拷锟斤拷锟?/p>

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆拷颉锟斤拷锟斤拷卸锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷芙锟斤拷锟轿拷锟斤拷锟斤拷确锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角斤拷锟斤拷锟皆伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷品锟斤拷锟斤拷瘢抗锟饺ワ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷未锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷裕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥对憋拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟接ｏ拷
* 锟截憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟酵癸拷司锟侥回憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆硷拷锟斤拷锟饺?锟斤拷姆锟秸棺达拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷业锟结构锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭碉拷锟斤拷锟街和癸拷模锟斤拷谁锟节该诧拷业锟斤拷拥锟叫凤拷锟斤拷权锟斤拷要锟节该诧拷业锟叫伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角憋拷锟斤拷模锟斤拷锟剿撅拷诓锟揭碉拷械牡锟轿伙拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷知锟斤拷谁锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷谐锟斤拷匣锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿裁达拷锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭★拷锟斤拷谁锟皆癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷为锟叫撅拷锟斤拷权锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷谋锟阶硷拷锟绞裁达拷锟?/p>

Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of sustainable competitive advantage?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷2锟斤拷锟斤拷业锟斤拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟姐够锟侥撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡ｏ拷

* 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷确锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰斤拷锟斤拷为锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷嘶峁猴拷锟斤拷夜锟剿撅拷牟锟狡凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷说模锟斤拷锟斤拷械锟皆拷锟斤拷欠锟?锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟睫变化锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷10锟斤拷岵伙拷锟侥变？
* 锟斤拷值锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷强锟斤拷涂沙锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角匡拷锟斤拷锟竭持撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟狡伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫╋拷锟斤拷疲锟斤拷谐锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟捷ｏ拷品锟斤拷锟揭诚度ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟桔革拷浠拷锟接帮拷锟教度ｏ拷锟角凤拷锟斤拷锟阶革拷锟狡ｏ拷锟斤拷品锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟角凤拷艹锟斤拷锟斤拷突锟斤拷谋涔╋拷锟斤拷痰某杀锟斤拷投锟斤拷锟轿拷危锟矫匡拷锟斤拷芄锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷募鄹锟斤拷锟届（Annual cost differential against competition锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷投锟诫？锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷品锟斤拷时锟侥凤拷锟秸ｏ拷锟酵伙拷锟铰碉拷锟斤拷锟窖★拷锟斤拷锟绞裁达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较帮拷呋锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷泻胃谋洌匡拷锟缴憋拷锟结构锟斤拷同锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街伙拷锟叫讹拷锟侥斤拷锟桔空间？锟斤拷要锟斤拷什么锟斤拷锟杰憋拷锟斤拷锟饺固的撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡ｏ拷锟斤拷锟叫成筹拷锟秸硷拷锟斤拷锟叫筹拷锟皆此诧拷品锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟金？讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟?br /> * 盈锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟杰凤拷转锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟襟，诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷尾锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿撅拷锟斤拷锟接拷锟斤拷锟揭碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷乇锟斤拷剩锟接碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷屎锟酵讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺ｏ拷锟斤拷毛锟斤拷锟绞★拷锟斤拷锟桔讹拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴憋拷/锟绞憋拷锟结构锟斤拷锟斤拷使锟斤拷效锟绞ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷碌锟斤拷纸锟斤拷锟斤拷嵌锟斤拷伲锟斤拷锟斤拷薰锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷疲锟斤拷锟斤拷蘧锟斤拷锟斤拷缘锟斤拷锟斤拷兀锟?br /> * 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞憋拷锟截憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴憋拷锟侥革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟阶拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷杀锟斤拷锟斤拷时锟斤拷峁癸拷锟叫э拷锟斤拷剩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷纸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥ｏ拷锟斤拷疲锟?/p>

Filter 3 - Able and honest management?
锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷3锟斤拷锟杰革拷锟揭筹拷锟脚的癸拷锟斤拷悖?/p>

锟斤拷晒锟斤拷锟斤拷哦拥模锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷凇锟斤拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷牛锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺拷锟饺ワ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷值锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷

Filter 4 - Is the price right?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷4锟斤拷锟桔革拷锟斤拷确锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟杰癸拷锟皆憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷选锟斤拷锟叫革拷锟矫回憋拷锟侥价革拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡访达拷锟斤拷锟揭拷锟斤拷锟绞碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿拷锟斤拷荨锟?/p>

Filter 5 锟紺 Disprove

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷5锟斤拷锟斤拷证

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷俚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿疽拷锟斤拷捉锟揭伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷兀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街伙拷锟斤拷谁锟斤拷为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接拷锟饺ワ拷锟?斤拷之锟斤拷谁锟斤拷锟角撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街ｏ拷为什么锟斤拷锟斤拷司业锟斤拷挚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷氐锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟剿撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷械墓锟饺ㄍ讹拷剩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷岵伙拷锟斤拷屑锟街碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥筹拷嘶锟矫达拷锟斤拷锟绞斤拷锟斤拷瞬牛锟斤拷诰锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞わ拷锟斤拷锟剿撅拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街诧拷锟斤拷锟节猴拷锟截憋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟皆对癸拷司锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟狡伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷司锟皆撅拷锟斤拷衰锟剿碉拷锟斤拷谐潭锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷执锟斤拷时锟斤拷锟斤拷锟劫的凤拷锟斤拷锟叫讹拷锟斤拷录锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷婊癸拷锟斤拷泻锟斤拷锟?/p>

Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷6锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷掖锟斤拷耍锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷危锟?/p>

锟斤拷 锟斤拷锟斤拷 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷 November 11, 2008 02:00 AM

锟斤拷锟斤拷

锟斤拷 锟斤拷锟斤拷 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷 November 11, 2008 04:40 PM

锟斤拷 Victor zhou 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷 November 11, 2008 05:55 PM

锟斤拷 cilia 锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷 November 27, 2008 09:52 AM

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